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Gilead (GILD) Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: Whats in Store?
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Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD - Free Report) is set to report fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 6, after market close.
The company has a mixed track record, with earnings beating estimates in two of the last four quarters and missing in the remaining two, the average negative surprise being 0.24%. In the last reported quarter, the company posted an earnings surprise of 19.9%.
Gilead Sciences, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Revenues in the fourth quarter have likely been boosted by growth in oncology and HIV franchise sales. However, a decline in Veklury (remdesivir) sales is likely to have dented this growth slightly.
Sales in the HIV franchise are being driven by higher demand for the flagship HIV therapies, Biktarvy and Descovy. Biktarvy’s sales increased 12% year over year in the previous quarter due to higher demand and favorable pricing dynamics. The trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter. Descovy’s revenues were boosted by higher demand and favorable pricing dynamics in the previous quarter and the momentum is likely to have continued in the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Biktarvy and Descovy sales are pegged at $3.2 billion and $565 million, respectively. Our model estimate for sales of Biktarvy and Descovy is pinned at $3.2 billion and $545 million, respectively.
However, Liver Disease portfolio sales, including chronic hepatitis C virus, chronic hepatitis B virus and chronic hepatitis delta virus, decreased in the previous quarter, as higher HCV patient starts were more than offset by unfavorable pricing dynamics. The fourth quarter has likely witnessed similar trends.
Sales of Veklury are likely to have seen a decline due to lower rates of COVID-19-related hospitalizations in all regions.
A strong increase in Cell Therapy product sales is expected to have boosted the top line in the fourth quarter. Yescarta sales are primarily being driven by increased demand in the second- and third-line settings for relapsed or refractory (“R/R”) large B-cell lymphoma outside of the United States.
Tecartus (brexucabtagene autoleucel) sales are being fueled by increased demand in adult R/R B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia and mantle cell lymphoma. Sales are likely to have experienced a sequential increase, driven by the label expansions of Yescarta and Tecartus.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cell Therapy product sales is $527 million and our estimate for the same is $552.3 million.
Increased sales of Trodelvy, indicating continued uptake in metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, have also likely boosted sales in the fourth quarter. Approval of the drug in Europe is also expected to have a positive impact on sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trodelvy sales is $296 million and our estimate for the same is $279.6 million.
Operating expenses are also likely to have increased in the fourth quarter due to higher R&D expenses.
Pipeline & Regulatory Update
Apart from the regular top- and bottom-line numbers, we expect investors to focus on key pipeline updates when the company reports its to-be-reported quarter.
The late-stage study evaluating the oncology drug Trodelvy (sacituzumab govitecan) in previously treated metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (“NSCLC”) failed.
The phase III study, EVOKE-01, evaluated Trodelvy vis-à-vis docetaxel in patients with metastatic or advanced NSCLC that had progressed on or after platinum-based chemotherapy and checkpoint inhibitor therapy. The study enrolled 603 participants who were randomized equally in both arms.
The study did not meet its primary endpoint of overall survival (“OS”), even though a numerical improvement in OS favoring sacituzumab govitecan was observed in the study in patients with both squamous and non-squamous histology.
Share Price Performance
Gilead’s stock has gained 3.5% in the past six months compared with the industry's growth of 1.7%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Our Model Predicts
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Gilead this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for GILD is -0.41% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pinned at $1.76 per share and the Most Accurate Estimate is presently pegged at $1.75. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some drug and biotech stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.
BPMC topped earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an earnings surprise of 11.29%, on average. BPMC is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 15. Its shares have surged 75% in the year so far.
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.95% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Intellia beat earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the remaining one. NTLA delivered an earnings surprise of 5.04%, on average.
Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +100% and a Zacks Rank #3.
MRNA beat earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the remaining one. It delivered an earnings surprise of 31.20%.
Image: Shutterstock
Gilead (GILD) Gears Up to Report Q4 Earnings: Whats in Store?
Gilead Sciences Inc. (GILD - Free Report) is set to report fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 6, after market close.
The company has a mixed track record, with earnings beating estimates in two of the last four quarters and missing in the remaining two, the average negative surprise being 0.24%. In the last reported quarter, the company posted an earnings surprise of 19.9%.
Gilead Sciences, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Gilead Sciences, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Gilead Sciences, Inc. Quote
Factors to Note
Revenues in the fourth quarter have likely been boosted by growth in oncology and HIV franchise sales. However, a decline in Veklury (remdesivir) sales is likely to have dented this growth slightly.
Sales in the HIV franchise are being driven by higher demand for the flagship HIV therapies, Biktarvy and Descovy. Biktarvy’s sales increased 12% year over year in the previous quarter due to higher demand and favorable pricing dynamics. The trend is likely to have continued in the to-be-reported quarter.
Descovy’s revenues were boosted by higher demand and favorable pricing dynamics in the previous quarter and the momentum is likely to have continued in the fourth quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Biktarvy and Descovy sales are pegged at $3.2 billion and $565 million, respectively. Our model estimate for sales of Biktarvy and Descovy is pinned at $3.2 billion and $545 million, respectively.
However, Liver Disease portfolio sales, including chronic hepatitis C virus, chronic hepatitis B virus and chronic hepatitis delta virus, decreased in the previous quarter, as higher HCV patient starts were more than offset by unfavorable pricing dynamics. The fourth quarter has likely witnessed similar trends.
Sales of Veklury are likely to have seen a decline due to lower rates of COVID-19-related hospitalizations in all regions.
A strong increase in Cell Therapy product sales is expected to have boosted the top line in the fourth quarter. Yescarta sales are primarily being driven by increased demand in the second- and third-line settings for relapsed or refractory (“R/R”) large B-cell lymphoma outside of the United States.
Tecartus (brexucabtagene autoleucel) sales are being fueled by increased demand in adult R/R B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia and mantle cell lymphoma. Sales are likely to have experienced a sequential increase, driven by the label expansions of Yescarta and Tecartus.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Cell Therapy product sales is $527 million and our estimate for the same is $552.3 million.
Increased sales of Trodelvy, indicating continued uptake in metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, have also likely boosted sales in the fourth quarter. Approval of the drug in Europe is also expected to have a positive impact on sales. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Trodelvy sales is $296 million and our estimate for the same is $279.6 million.
Operating expenses are also likely to have increased in the fourth quarter due to higher R&D expenses.
Pipeline & Regulatory Update
Apart from the regular top- and bottom-line numbers, we expect investors to focus on key pipeline updates when the company reports its to-be-reported quarter.
The late-stage study evaluating the oncology drug Trodelvy (sacituzumab govitecan) in previously treated metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (“NSCLC”) failed.
The phase III study, EVOKE-01, evaluated Trodelvy vis-à-vis docetaxel in patients with metastatic or advanced NSCLC that had progressed on or after platinum-based chemotherapy and checkpoint inhibitor therapy. The study enrolled 603 participants who were randomized equally in both arms.
The study did not meet its primary endpoint of overall survival (“OS”), even though a numerical improvement in OS favoring sacituzumab govitecan was observed in the study in patients with both squamous and non-squamous histology.
Share Price Performance
Gilead’s stock has gained 3.5% in the past six months compared with the industry's growth of 1.7%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What Our Model Predicts
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Gilead this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here, as you will see below.
Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for GILD is -0.41% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pinned at $1.76 per share and the Most Accurate Estimate is presently pegged at $1.75. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.
Stocks to Consider
Here are some drug and biotech stocks you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season.
Blueprint Medicines (BPMC - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.84% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
BPMC topped earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters, with an earnings surprise of 11.29%, on average. BPMC is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2023 results on Feb 15. Its shares have surged 75% in the year so far.
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +9.95% and a Zacks Rank #2.
Intellia beat earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the remaining one. NTLA delivered an earnings surprise of 5.04%, on average.
Moderna (MRNA - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +100% and a Zacks Rank #3.
MRNA beat earnings estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed in the remaining one. It delivered an earnings surprise of 31.20%.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.